A simple model for estimating regional warming patterns and heatwaves in South Asia

Global warming involves changes not only in the mean atmospheric temperature, but also in its variability and extremes. Recent findings reveal the role of regional warming patterns in shaping the distinct response of cold and warm anomalies. Contrary to the typical finding of aerosols (or atmospheric pollution particles) cooling surface air temperature, the presence of black and brown carbon give Indian region aerosols a warming nature. Here we will develop a simple (1D) radiative-convective equilibrum (RCE) model to estimate changes in temperature extremes, while including a treatment of near-surface aerosol warming. We will force the model using observations and/or reanalysis data, and study the effects of aerosol properties on the temperature and humidity profiles in the column. We will use these profiles to diagnose metrics for moist heat stress and characterise the occurrence of extremes in temperature and humidity.